Palestine

The Palestinians are taking their case for statehood to the UN. Most of Europe will support it, and it looks set to pass. Israel has been protesting, and managed to secure a UN veto.

Instead of stubbornly trying to prevent the inevitable however, Israel would be better off playing hardball: We are willing to support your bid, and even to sign a lasting agreement with your new state tomorrow, provided you meet our conditions: 1. control of the Old City of Jerusalem with a defensible perimeter around it to prevent a potential siege situation a la 1948 2. No Right of Return, however, Israel will give aid money to a repatriation fund run by your government, and will give numerous aid to your government. This sum should a) be distributed over a number of years to provide long-term aid b) be reasonable so as not to strain the Israeli government or its economy 3. working out the details of border control between the two countries.

This would make Israel look reasonable and peace-seeking both to Palestinians and to the larger world. It would also be a way of taking an inevitable fact and using it to get some benefits for Israel. As it is however, Israel can not support the Palestinian bid: It has already invested too much in convincing the US to oppose the bid. Doing an about face now will seem fickle and ungrateful, and therefore risk alienating Israel's best ally. Of course, Israel shouldn't have been using its political capital with the US in order to prevent statehood to begin with, but that's beside the point.

I would also urge Palestinians to aggressively pursue negotiations with Israel: The simple declaration of statehood sans negotiations will not change the daily lives of most Palestinians or help the financially ailing Palestinian Authority. Neither will it result in a step-down of Israeli troops - if anything it will result in a step-up, as security fears mount. True, statehood means the Palestinians could urge the UN to pass sanctions or take Israeli government officials to the ICC, but the UN is a slow bureaucracy ineffective at passing resolutions, and at enforcing those it does pass. Additionally, the US veto would be in place when it comes to sanctions, and prosecutions at the ICC don't stop a government from pursuing a certain policy: It took years of genocide in Sudan before the ICC began prosecuting Bashir. Even now, a final verdict has not been reached, and his government continues to pursue murderous policies - which means that the ICC's effect on the daily lives of the people whose rights Bashir violates has been negligible.

For these reasons, it is in the Palestinian people's best interest for their government to negotiate with the one party that can improve their daily lives, very quickly: Israel.

It takes two to tango. Time for both parties to come to the table.